Analysts estimate that mortgage lending in Russia from January to September 2022 reached about 5.4 trillion rubles, a figure reported by VTB. This represents a roughly 10% increase compared with the entirety of 2022.
According to the bank, between the start of the year and September, customers opened 214 thousand mortgages totaling 1.1 trillion rubles, surpassing the full-year total of the previous year. The lion’s share of lending occurred in September, at 232 billion rubles. An uptick in demand is linked to rising interest rates and expectations of higher down payments under government programs.
“At the start of the year, demand rose as programs with near-zero down payments were limited; the sharp rise in the key rate over the summer further boosted customer interest and set expectations for tighter terms in autumn. Changes in concessional mortgage terms followed. It’s clear that this level of demand in January–September will cool the market in the fourth quarter. Still, with strong activity through much of 2023, sales are anticipated to be around 6.9 trillion rubles by year-end,” stated Evgeny Dyachkin, vice president and head of sales for VTB partner channels.
Regionally, Moscow and its surrounding area led with 76.1 billion rubles, followed by Saint Petersburg with 23.8 billion and Tatarstan with 12.5 billion.
According to DOM.RF, by the end of September, an additional 1.9 trillion rubles allocated to the concessional credit limit had been exhausted. A large portion of these funds went to major banks.
Experts note that the depreciation of the ruble and its impact on the economy remains a focal point for policy makers and investors alike, shaping the outlook for lending and consumer finance going forward.