Analysts taking part in the Central Bank survey updated their macroeconomic projections for Russia, reflecting a revised outlook across several key indicators. The updated forecast suggests that gross domestic product (GDP) for 2023 could expand by 2.5 percent, versus the prior estimate of 2.2 percent. This adjustment was disclosed on the regulator’s official website and signals a more optimistic momentum within the domestic economy, driven by a combination of investment activity, consumer demand, and external conditions that have slightly improved since the mid-year review.
Inflation expectations for the year were also raised, with projections moving from 6.3 percent in September to 7 percent. The Central Bank’s forecast for the policy rate in 2023 was increased from 9.3 percent to 9.8 percent, reflecting the authorities’ assessment of ongoing price pressures and the need to anchor inflation expectations. Analysts surveyed by the Bank of Russia anticipate that the average key rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 will approach 14.2 percent. Looking ahead, the forecast for 2024 places the rate at about 12.6 percent and then easing to around 8.2 percent in 2025, assuming inflation continues to converge toward the Bank’s targets. Alongside the rate path, forecasters expect the ruble to strengthen, with an average dollar exchange rate for 2024 projected near 86 rubles per dollar. This implies an expected improvement in the external balance and a more stable currency trajectory amid evolving global risk factors.
Forecasts for GDP growth in the following year remained anchored at 1.5 percent, unchanged from the September projection. Inflation is expected to rise to around 5.1 percent next year, before easing toward the central bank’s 4 percent objective in 2025. The outlook underscores a phase of cautious expansion, where domestic demand and external demand interact within a high-interest-rate environment as policy aims to balance growth with price stability.
In parallel, the Court of Accounts issued a caution early this week about the risks embedded in the 2024–2026 draft budget, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in fiscal planning and expenditure coordination. The Central Bank has previously signaled that a deliberate stance on monetary policy remains in place to avoid overheating the economy, even as credit creation shows signs of acceleration. This combination of fiscal vigilance and monetary restraint is expected to influence private sector activity, savings behavior, and the broader investment climate in the near term.