Three main risks could push Russia’s inflation away from the central baseline forecast in the near term. Analysts highlight a shortage of workers, a lag between wage growth and productivity gains, and a rapid decrease in consumer spending as authorities tighten enforcement. These points were emphasized by Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank, in remarks reported by RIA Novosti.
Officials outlined three key risks. First, consumer demand could cool unexpectedly as inflation expectations rise, tempering price pressures. Second, a growing labor shortage could, if not offset by productivity gains, allow wages to outpace output. Third, further sanctions could intensify, adding new layers of uncertainty for price dynamics in the Russian economy.
In Nabiullina’s assessment, the balance in the inflation equation has shifted toward factors that support higher consumer prices. This shift suggests that recent tightening of policy and external pressures have begun to influence the trajectory of inflation in ways that merit close monitoring by policymakers and markets alike.
According to Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin, the central bank expected annual inflation to dip below 4 percent in the spring, with some forecasts pointing to a brief period where inflation may slow more noticeably. However, within the same timeframe, prices in the broader domestic market were projected to accelerate, potentially landing in a 5 to 7 percent range by year-end as the economy adjusts to evolving demand and ongoing cost pressures.