Russia’s year-over-year inflation stood at 8.63 percent by the end of September, marking a continued easing from earlier months. This slowdown signals softer price pressures for households as the economy adjusts to shifts in commodity prices, monetary policy, and evolving demand across goods and services. While the general trend points downward, the path remains uneven, with some staples showing renewed volatility and wider price gaps across regions and stores.
Past comparisons show the annual rate easing from 9.13 percent in July to 9.05 percent in August, then to 8.63 percent in September. In contrast, the monthly pattern diverged. The month-over-month rise picked up, reflecting that shoppers may feel price changes more sharply from one month to the next even as the annual gain slows.
Monthly consumer prices advanced at a faster pace, climbing from 0.2 percent in August to 0.48 percent by the end of September. This acceleration points to persistent price pressures in the short term, driven by components such as food, beverages, and tradable goods, despite the cooling of the longer-term inflation trend.
Among goods, oranges registered the largest price increase, up about 14.8 percent year over year. In August, orange prices had already risen roughly 10.7 percent. The surge is linked to a global orange shortage tied to poor harvests in Brazil, the leading exporter of this fruit, which constrains supply for importers and retailers worldwide.
Cucumber prices rose around 6.3 percent, and lemons climbed about 2.6 percent over the month. Dairy products also saw noticeable increases, with price gains typically ranging from 3 to 4 percent during September. The combination of higher fresh produce costs and ongoing dairy pressures helped push the monthly inflation rate higher.
Trade movements also influenced the market as Asian buyers increased shipments of Russian preserved greens, with volumes reaching about 305 tons. These trade flows illustrate how external demand for specific goods can interact with domestic price dynamics, storage costs, and transport logistics.
Economists weighed in on the fish sector as well, noting that rising fish prices stem from a mix of supply constraints, seasonal demand, and import costs. Analysts point to factors such as harvest timing, currency movements, and consumer demand that together shape seafood prices in the coming months.