According to the consensus forecast, Russia’s GDP is projected to grow by about 0.9 percent, as reported by Izvestia. The article notes this scenario is more optimistic than the IMF forecast, which sits at roughly 0.7 percent, yet somewhat bleaker than the Ministry of Economic Development’s projection for a 1.2 percent rise in 2023. The discussion reflects a range of expert opinions from major financial institutions and highlights how analysts weigh domestic demand against shifts in export patterns and policy support.
Across the year’s survey, seven of eight experts from leading financial institutions indicated expectations of GDP expansion, while one institution, Zenit Bank, allowed for the possibility of flat growth in 2023. This spread underscores the degree of uncertainty surrounding Russia’s macroeconomic trajectory and the sensitivity to external conditions as well as to internal policy measures.
Absolut Bank emerged with the most bullish outlook. Its forecast envisions growth in the 2 to 3 percent range for 2023, followed by an additional 3 to 4 percent upswing in 2024. The bank points to a gradual revival in consumer demand, noting that household spending has started to pick up but remains restrained by ongoing caution among buyers and borrowers. The assessment also considers how credit availability and financial conditions influence investment decisions in the corporate sector.
The publication attributes the expected 2023 acceleration to several domestic and global forces. First, a revival in consumer spending is anticipated to support production and services. Second, exporters are reportedly redirecting shipments toward newer and faster-growing markets, including major economies such as India and China, as well as other countries that are diversifying their trade links. Third, government programs and ongoing support measures are anticipated to stabilize activity, while persistent demand for credit—particularly in the corporate realm—helps fund capital expenditure and expansion. Taken together, these dynamics could sustain a moderate rebound in output even as global conditions remain imperfect.
Looking back at last year, the publication notes that Russia rejoined the ranks of the world’s largest economies, reclaiming a position among the top ten for the first time in eight years. This historical context underscores a long arc of structural changes and policy responses that continue to shape growth paths, investment flows, and the resilience of industry across sectors.