Labor shortages are a key factor that could slow Russia’s GDP growth in the coming years. This observation comes from Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist at Alfa-Bank, as reported by Lente.ru. She notes that sustaining growth rates above 2 percent for an extended period will be challenging because the economy faces a substantial scarcity of available labor resources. This constraint affects the pace at which the economy can expand and limits the potential output in various sectors, from manufacturing to services.
Orlova explains that the labor shortage has likely been incorporated into official projections by the Ministry of Economic Development. One plausible pathway to mitigate the shortage she mentions is through higher levels of immigration, which could gradually replenish the workforce and support higher growth in consumer demand and production capacity. The interaction between migration policy, demographic trends, and job creation will play a crucial role in shaping the medium-term outlook for the Russian economy.
At the same time, the risks associated with international sanctions continue to cast a shadow over the economic landscape. While some observers have shown hesitation about the duration and impact of these sanctions, predicting their ultimate effect remains complex. Nevertheless, the current trajectory for this year shows a stronger performance than many forecasters anticipated just months ago, reflecting a combination of policy responses, price adjustments, and shifts in domestic demand that collectively bolster activity more than initially expected.
Earlier in the week, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development outlined a forecast for 2026 that envisions growth approaching 2.8 percent. The ministry highlights a partial recovery in consumer demand, driven by rising wages and a modest rebound in real incomes, as a principal driver of this improvement. This scenario suggests a blend of resumed confidence among households, improved access to credit, and a broader stabilization of investment activity that could reinforce the recovery trend over the medium term.