Russia’s Ministry of Transport anticipates that airline ticket prices could rise by roughly 15% to 30% during the upcoming summer season. Officials attribute this projection to the absence of new subsidies for air travel, a move that stands in contrast to last year’s financial support. The assessment was shared by Division Vice President Igor Chalik in mid-April.
Chalik highlighted that subsidies approved for 2022 have not yet been duplicated for the current year. He recalled that the prior period included a subsidy package totaling 100 billion rubles, and warned that without a similar level of funding, transportation costs are likely to climb within the forecasted range. He also noted that higher prices could lead to fewer trips overall.
Vladimir Poteshkin, deputy head of the Federal Air Transport Agency, emphasized that the reduction in state subsidies has already translated into fewer flights. He projected that domestic routes would carry about 81.9 million passengers in 2023, while three subsidy programs were still in operation, according to Interfax.
Another point of concern is the ongoing budget cuts underway. These reductions have already contributed to the loss of 10,612 flights, including 4,947 flights to more remote areas. In the previous year, Russian airlines benefited from subsidies totaling 100 billion rubles to offset operating costs for flights inside the country amid sanctions, as reported by TASS.
For 2023, subsidies were allocated at 25.3 billion rubles, covering the period from November through March. The Air Transport Operators Association has previously urged the Ministry of Transport to authorize a subsidy level of 100 billion rubles for the forthcoming summer season, a request detailed in a report by Kommersant.
Industry analysts in the travel sector warn that any price rise of this magnitude could push tour prices higher and dampen demand for domestic holidays. They note that transportation costs typically account for a substantial portion of the overall package price, suggesting that increases of 60% to 70% in travel-related expenses could make budget tours particularly vulnerable. This dynamic could also push some travelers toward more affordable options.
With ticket costs climbing, experts advise travelers to consider booking early and paying upfront to lock in current rates before increases take full effect. In parallel, accommodation prices are expected to rise as the peak season approaches. However, the impact may be less pronounced on higher-end segments, where other factors influence demand and discretionary spending. Observers also anticipate a modest uptick in domestic car travel this summer, as some travelers opt for road trips in place of air travel.