Russia may see GDP growth of about 2.7 percent in the current year, according to TASS reporting from economist Andrey Klepach, who serves as chief economist for the state corporation VEB.RF. His assessment was shared during the Siberian Grain forum and centers on boosting consumer activity, expanding investment, and strengthening the industrial sector.
The economist outlined a baseline forecast for 2023 of 2.7 percent growth. He noted that household consumption is lifting services, while investment is expected to rise by roughly 2.2 percent. Industries including food production and mechanical engineering are showing solid momentum. He also highlighted a broad recovery beyond defense, pointing to improvements in the automotive sector as well. He suggested a potential 15 percent rise in output, driven by these combined dynamics.
Klepach emphasized that Russia is actively pursuing new markets with allied nations to diversify its export base. This strategy follows recent agreements signed after the Russia Africa summit and aims to secure steady demand for a range of products, including agricultural goods such as maize, across different regions in Africa and beyond.
There is also optimism about expanding exports to Iran, Pakistan, and India as part of a broader push to broaden geographic coverage for Russian goods. In parallel, Rosstat projected a temporary acceleration in GDP growth to about 4.9 percent in the second quarter of 2023.
Analysts at the Central Bank of Russia have prepared multiple scenarios for the year. The official baseline outlook suggests GDP may rise by 1.5 to 2.5 percent by year end, while senior officials including Maxim Reshetnikov, Minister of Economic Development, and Anton Siluanov, Minister of Finance, have indicated that annual growth could exceed 2 percent. An updated socio economic development forecast places 2023 growth at around 1.2 percent and projects 2024 growth near 2 percent.
Earlier releases from the central bank outlined three potential trajectories for the Russian economy through 2026, underscoring the range of factors that could influence future performance and policy responses. This snapshot reflects a period of gradual stabilization alongside ongoing efforts to diversify markets, expand investment, and bolster production in key industrial sectors.