Last year, Russia solidified its position as a dominant player in global grain production. In the latest industry assessment, grain output reached 153.8 million tons by net weight, representing a substantial 26.8 percent rise over the 2021 harvest and marking a new all-time high. The figures come from a detailed study conducted by the Yakov and Partners team, a project born from the collaboration of the leading consulting firms known for their work with large-scale agricultural markets. The findings reflect responses gathered from managers and specialists across a broad spectrum of Russian agro-industrial enterprises, offering a clear snapshot of the sector’s trajectory during that period.
The official statistics from Rosstat corroborate the study’s headline result, confirming 153.8 million tons of grain produced in the country. The year’s harvest not only surpassed prior records but did so by a comfortable margin, underscoring a period of exceptionally high yields and strong agricultural performance across key crops. The surge in production is positioned as a benchmark within the national agricultural landscape, highlighting the resilience and capacity of Russian grain growers to meet ambitious targets.
According to the report, a majority of agricultural producers exceeded their planned outputs for the 2021–2022 cycle. The data reveal that many farmers achieved yields that surpassed expectations, despite varying regional conditions. In the Volga and Southern federal districts, a noteworthy share of farmers reported exceeding their grain production plans, with roughly half in the Volga region and more than half in the Southern region surpassing their targets. These insights point to a period of favorable growing conditions, efficient farm management, and strong supply chain performance that supported larger-than-planned harvests across multiple farm sizes and land holdings.
The underlying Yakov and Partners study, which informs the published conclusions, was conducted toward the end of 2022 and is based on a survey of farmers. Participants included representatives from 96 Russian agro-industrial companies, encompassing land bank portfolios ranging from about 20 thousand to 120 thousand hectares. The survey spanned 3.3 million hectares across 20 districts, covering four federal districts of the country. This breadth provides a nuanced picture of how different regional contexts contributed to the overall performance and helps explain variations in output and planning accuracy across the sector.
During the first half of the current agricultural year, the deputy minister of agriculture referenced a strong export outlook. Projections indicated that Russia would ship between 30 and 35 million tons of grain to international markets in the first half of the 2022–2023 period. The deputy minister noted that the country had exported 29 million tons in the preceding half-year, and that exporting within the projected range remained a feasible goal if market conditions and harvest quality aligned with expectations. This stance reflected continued confidence in the external demand for Russian grain and in the logistical capacity to move large volumes abroad amid fluctuating global markets.
As the year progressed, officials projected that grain export volumes for the following months could approach 50 to 60 million tons, provided that crop yields remained robust and weather patterns cooperated. The forward-looking assessment highlighted the dynamic balance between crop performance, seasonal weather, and international demand, all of which influence the final export totals. The overall message emphasized readiness to meet growing overseas demand while managing supply chain considerations and regional production variability, underscoring the country’s role in the global grain trade and the importance of maintaining stable export channels across multiple harvest cycles.