Russia Faces a Possible Decline in Poverty in 2024
In Russia, the poverty rate may fall from 9.3% of the population to about 8% in 2024. This projection was shared with socialbites.ca by an economist specializing in social sciences, affiliated with the Basic Department of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation and a faculty member at the Russian University of Economics. GV Plekhanova Lyudmila Ivanova-Shvets.
By year-end, the total of low-income residents could drop from around 13.5 million to about 12 million people.
Experts consider an 8% poverty rate to be a realistic target. The level of poverty hinges largely on social benefits, the growth of the minimum wage, and the rate of unemployment. In 2024, social payments were indexed, the minimum wage rose by 18.5%, and unemployment stood at a record-low level, contributing to a tighter poverty picture.
Overall, contemporary data indicate rising nominal and real incomes for many Russians.
Inflation has remained subdued since the start of the year. If price growth stays controlled, it could support lower poverty and higher average incomes. Consequently, a further decline in poverty is plausible if inflation remains tame.
Rosstat data show that by the end of 2023, about 13.5 million Russians lived below the poverty line, equating to 9.3% of the population. This figure was lower than 2022, when the poverty rate reached 9.8%. The official poverty line reached 14,754 rubles per month in the last quarter of 2023, while the average monthly figure for 2023 stood at 14,339 rubles, up from 13,545 rubles in the previous year.
Earlier assessments by economists considered Rosstat figures on income growth to be a reliable indicator of living standards for Russians.