A government statement indicated that starting December 1, the export tax on coking coal will be scrapped. The move is aimed at simplifying cross-border trade and could affect state revenue as well as the competitive position of Russian coal in global markets. Industry observers note that the change may alter the economics of shipments, potentially encouraging higher volumes where buyers previously faced higher costs. Although the plan is clear, the broader effects will depend on how buyers respond to lower export costs and how logistics align with demand cycles in key regions.
In the first three quarters of the year, the main buyers reduced their intake. China remained the largest destination with 53.7 million tonnes, while India received 20.1 million tonnes and Turkey took in 15.3 million tonnes. All three destinations reported declines compared with the previous year, with China down 9.5 percent, India down 23 percent, and Turkey down 35 percent. Other major destinations such as the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, and Japan also cut purchases. This backdrop reflects a softer energy demand environment across several parts of Asia and neighboring markets, even as buyers monitor the potential savings from the new policy.
From January through September, Russia shipped approximately 147 million tonnes of coal to foreign markets, a roughly 10 percent decline from the same period in 2023. Supplies from the Azov-Black Sea basin were hit hardest, falling 56 percent year over year as port activity and logistical constraints played a role in the geographic distribution of exports. Market participants have noted that regional demand patterns, freight costs, and the availability of alternative suppliers influenced the pace of shipments during the period.
Industry analysts caution that coal producers faced pressures linked to softer energy prices in Asia, which affected margins even as export terms change. The expected tax removal could alleviate some cost barriers for sellers and improve competitiveness in key markets, enabling Russian coal to reach buyers at more favorable price points. Traders and miners will watch how the policy shift translates into actual sale prices, buyer acceptance, and the timing of new orders across global routes. The broader effect on regional price signals will depend on how quickly buyers incorporate the potential savings into procurement decisions and how freight and insurance costs adjust with evolving demand.
The policy change arrives amid a mixed energy landscape where demand varies by region and by season. If the tax relief translates into meaningful price advantages, Russian coking coal could regain momentum in crowded markets while competing suppliers adjust their strategies. Market participants will assess how lower export costs affect port flows, shipping schedules, and the structure of long-term supply agreements. As buyers recalibrate sourcing, the next chapters of trade will reveal whether cheaper coal leads to higher volumes and stabilized prices or to a continuation of cautious buying amid ongoing price volatility.
Attribution: official briefing.