In the second quarter of 2023, analysts project that the Russian economy will expand by about 4.2 percent, with the recovery scenario laid out in the section that discusses the monetary policy of the Central Bank.
According to the Central Bank, stronger consumer spending and higher investment activity, along with a drop in January–March 2023 unemployment, support an upward revision of the 2023 GDP growth forecast to a range of 0.5 to 2.0 percent.
The Central Bank identifies domestic demand as the principal engine of growth for this year. It also notes that the economy is on a path to gradual recovery and is expected to approach the level seen in the fourth quarter of 2021 by the end of 2024, suggesting a steady normalization trajectory rather than a sharp rebound.
Recent data indicate that Russia’s foreign debt to GDP ratio for 2022 has fallen to at least 16.6 percent, signaling improved balance sheet resilience against external shocks and a more sustainable external position in the near term.
Earlier statements from the IMF and related authorities indicate that the Russian economy has proved more resilient to sanctions than some observers anticipated, underscoring a restrained but persistent path of adjustment and adaptation across key sectors.