Roscongress Foundation experts project that if Russia maintains its current monetary policy, the dollar could reach about 110 rubles in the second quarter of 2024, a scenario explored in the fund’s report titled Prospects for the Ruble: Exchange Control or Devaluation? (as reported by RIA News). The analysis notes that a gradual, controlled depreciation of the ruble, aligned with the framework of existing budget policy, would likely lead to an average monthly decline of roughly 2 rubles in the exchange rate against the dollar.
According to the document, an exchange rate near 110 rubles per dollar is considered achievable by the second quarter of 2024 under this controlled depreciation path. The authors emphasize that a weaker ruble could materialize within a budget-friendly corridor if policy measures allow for more flexible currency controls and a recalibration of monetary policy to reflect evolving economic conditions.
The report suggests that to alter this trajectory, Russian authorities and the Central Bank would need to revise currency-control requirements and adjust monetary policy accordingly. It notes that implementing a full repatriation of foreign earnings into Russia could push the ruble even above the 80–90 ruble range per dollar that had been considered feasible within the budget framework.
Earlier, Boris Titov, the business ombudsperson, criticized the Central Bank for raising interest rates, arguing that the bank responds to short-term difficulties without creating lasting conditions for growth. Titov asserted that the focus should shift from rate hikes to addressing structural issues such as labor shortages and attracting foreign workers to support the economy.
Vladislav Antonov, a financial analyst who spoke on the matter, noted that the central bank’s decision to lift rates to 13 percent would bolster the ruble in the short term, yet other factors would continue applying pressure on the currency. He advised monitoring ruble behavior in the regional market, particularly around the ₽98.5 per dollar level, to gauge where the exchange rate might head next.
Earlier assessments from economists highlighted potential avenues to profit from anticipated rate movements, while stressing that the overall direction of the ruble would hinge on a mix of domestic policy choices and external economic conditions. In this broader view, the balance between macroeconomic stability and growth incentives remains central to forecasting the currency’s path in the coming quarters, with implications for investors and businesses operating in Russia and allied markets. [Cited in relation to structural policy discussions and market expectations, attribution to Roscongress Foundation-based analysis].