The 2024 cap on ruble weakness is forecast at 95 rubles per dollar and 101 rubles per euro. This outlook was shared by Vladislav Antonov, a financial analyst at BitRiver, during a discussion with socialbites.ca.
According to Antonov, these thresholds could be reached in the second quarter if oil prices continue to slide, the budget deficit widens, and the Bank of Russia eases its monetary stance by cutting key policy rates. He notes that exporters may face slower ruble conversions as the presidential campaign intensifies and the tax period approaches. The analyst expects the central bank to intervene with measures aimed at stabilizing the ruble to prevent renewed inflationary pressure.
Antonov added that the duration of elevated dollar and euro levels will hinge on a mix of factors including the American and European economic trajectories, geopolitical developments, and central bank moves around the world.
Further details were reported by a major financial outlet, which indicated that the ruble faced renewed weakness as early as Monday.
On that day, the dollar climbed to about 91.5 rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange, while the euro pushed above 99 rubles, marking its highest mark in three weeks.
The former financier described the day’s development as a notable weakening of the ruble.