A leading investment analyst in Moscow offers a cautious view on the recent moves in the Russian foreign exchange market. He suggests that the depreciation of the dollar and the euro could be linked to a decision to close correspondent FX accounts for most Russian banks, leaving only the local arm of Austrian Raiffeisen Bank active. This decision reportedly became known on Friday through discussions with industry insiders.
On Friday’s trading session at the Moscow Exchange, the dollar slipped below 77 rubles, touching 76.26 rubles—the weakest level since March 24. The euro marked a fresh trough, trading around 84.23 rubles, a level not seen since early April. This price action mirrors a broader shift in risk sentiment and liquidity flows across the market, with observers weighing the impact of the Raiffeisen accounts amid ongoing geopolitical and financial developments.
One analyst emphasized that the core driver of the ruble’s strength appeared to be changes in financial flows rather than any fundamental improvement in trade balances. He noted that the rapid improvement in the ruble exchange rate on Friday could reflect inflows tied to the Raiffeisen news, and he maintained a forecast range of 74-76 rubles per dollar for a horizon of three to six months. In his view, the market could continue to exhibit heightened volatility around these average levels as new information emerges.
Market participants have observed that the volatility pattern resembles episodes from last year, when similar headlines triggered sharp moves in the ruble. In 2022, speculation about sanctions against key market infrastructure and clearing systems precipitated rapid shifts, sometimes freezing portions of dollar and euro positions and prompting traders to act to protect or maximize revenue in a fast-changing environment. This context helps explain why traders remain cautious even as liquidity conditions adapt.
A separate perspective from BCS World Investments notes that Russia’s foreign trade activity seems to be normalizing after a dip in export flows observed in early spring. A senior market strategist highlighted that imports are cooling, which likely reduces the pressure on demand for hard currencies. Collectively, these dynamics point to a more balanced supply-demand backdrop, even as the market remains sensitive to policy signals, sanctions chatter, and the behavior of international banks involved in Russia’s financial ecosystem.
Looking ahead, analysts forecast that in the early part of the second half of the year, the dollar could approach the 75 ruble mark, with the euro hovering near 84 rubles. The yuan might test approximately 11 rubles, depending on broader global risk trends and domestic macro data. In short, the ruble landscape remains fluid, with traders watching both trade recovery indicators and the evolving status of foreign banking relationships that influence liquidity and settlement flows across Moscow’s financial framework. (Source: market commentary and expert opinions, attributed to industry briefings and research notes)