Ruble Gains on the Back of Oil Prices and Policy Moves
By the end of the trading day on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the dollar is forecast to hover around 90 to 91 rubles. This outlook comes from Dmitry Babin, a market expert affiliated with BCS World of Investments, who shared his views with socialbites.ca.
In the opening moments of trading, the ruble showed sharp weakness but quickly reversed course and began a renewed ascent. Just ahead of the main session, the ruble’s strength accelerated, and another notable surge occurred during the middle of the session. The dollar slipped just under 91 rubles for the first time since late July, the euro touched a weekly low near 97.5 rubles, and the yuan neared 12.45 rubles for the first time since early July. At present, the currencies have rebounded from earlier lows as part of a corrective move. Babin noted that the ruble’s breakout from a three-week period of consolidation was ultimately upward in direction.
The analyst pointed to elevated oil prices, which have persisted for several months, as a key driver. He also cited the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and strengthened exchange controls as supportive factors. According to Babin, these elements are likely to contribute to further ruble strengthening in the near term.
Data from the Moscow Stock Exchange indicates that the dollar for settlements “tomorrow” at 14:03 Moscow time declined by 96 kopeks to 90.93 rubles, the euro fell by 49 kopecks to 96.156 rubles, and the yuan decreased by 9 kopecks to 12.45 rubles.
Earlier, socialbites.ca asked: What is likely to happen to the dollar exchange rate in the short term?
Notes from the session show the dollar briefly slipping below 91 rubles for the first time since July, signaling renewed volatility and ongoing adjustments in the market.
Market observers are watching oil prices, central bank policy signals, and regulatory measures as key inputs shaping currency dynamics. Traders emphasize the importance of liquidity conditions and the pace of policy normalization in determining how far the ruble might move in the coming days.
In this context, the exchange rate path remains highly sensitive to external factors such as global commodity trends and geopolitical developments, alongside domestic financial policy actions. Investors are cautioned to monitor both price movements in crude oil and evolving monetary stance as potential catalysts for further ruble fluctuations.
Overall, the current trajectory suggests that the ruble could strengthen further if oil prices stay elevated and policy support remains intact, though short-term volatility may persist as markets digest incoming data and policy guidance. (Attribution: Moscow Exchange data; market commentary from a regional investment firm.)