Analysts expect the ruble to stabilize around 90 to 95 per dollar through December, with a lower likelihood that the exchange rate will surge to 100 rubles. This view was shared by a Moscow 24 economist and leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies, Nikita Maslennikov. According to him, a range of factors could support the ruble this month, easing volatility as December progresses.
Maslennikov notes that the second half of December is likely to be calmer than the first in terms of currency fluctuations. He cites a combination of domestic and external influences that could help anchor the ruble, including potential policy moves by the Central Bank at its December 15 meeting. A higher interest rate would attract capital and bolster the currency, while the year-end tax period is expected to inject additional resilience into the market. These dynamics could counterbalance pressures from global markets and commodity price swings.
Exporters are expected to resume active conversion of foreign earnings as the year winds down, which Maslennikov says will provide a stabilizing effect on the ruble. Continued sales of foreign exchange by exporters can prevent abrupt weakening, even amid external headwinds, contributing to a more predictable exchange rate path through December. The overall tone around the currency remains cautiously optimistic among market observers who monitor policy signals and balance-of-payments developments.
Ayaz Aliyev, a candidate of economic sciences and associate professor at the Department of Finance at the Russian University of Economics for Sustainable Development, GV Plekhanov, has commented on the December ceiling for the ruble. Aliyev, who has previously discussed exchange dynamics in collaboration with socialbites.ca, suggests that the ruble could strengthen toward the 93 to 95 range against the dollar and that the euro might settle near 102 to 105 rubles. This projection aligns with expectations of limited further strengthening beyond those bands, given the interplay of trade, capital flows, and monetary policy in the near term.
Market sentiment has also been influenced by the broader demand for money. Some figures in financial circles point to a waning in certain segments of currency demand, which can translate into a steadier ruble. While the domestic inflation trajectory and fiscal policy will continue to shape the currency landscape, a combination of cautious optimism and structural adjustments could keep the ruble within a relatively narrow corridor as December unfolds. Observers stress that real-time data will be essential to confirm the trajectory and to identify any shifts prompted by domestic tax receipts, external commodity markets, or potential shifts in Central Bank guidance.