Economist Yegor Klopenko discussed the ruble’s trajectory through the end of April, estimating that the currency would hover in a narrow band around seventy to eighty rubles per dollar. He explained that there is little room for a meaningful revival in the ruble given the current economic landscape and the absence of catalysts strong enough to justify a sharper appreciation. According to Klopenko, anti Russian sanctions have not translated into visible, lasting improvements for the local currency. He attributes ruble stability to a combination of credible central bank policy, a healthy external balance from trade operations, and a calm market sentiment that helps prevent panic selling or speculative spikes. These factors collectively buffer the exchange rate against sudden swings and create a stable environment for both exporters and importers in the near term, as reported by financial outlets and market observers.
Oleg Shibanov, who previously led the SKOLKOVO NES Center for Financial Technology and Digital Economy Studies, offered an explanation for the ruble’s steadiness. He pointed to a substantial supply of foreign currency from exporters who must convert a large share of their earnings, estimated around eighty percent, which meets demand levels that are not as strong from importers as in the past. He also noted that there has been limited activity from the Russian Ministry of Finance, which has not been purchasing dollars recently due to the freezing of dollar accounts, reducing a potential source of currency demand that might otherwise push the ruble higher. Shibanov emphasizes that the absence of aggressive dollar buying by a major state actor helps keep the ruble anchored within a predictable range, contributing to market confidence and measured price discovery for the currency.
In early April the ruble faced moments of renewed pressure as the currency briefly tested levels around the mid seventy area against the dollar. Market participants on the Moscow Exchange registered dollar bids that were lower in the morning, with quotes slipping beneath seventy-five rubles per dollar for a short spell. Later in the day prices recovered and moved back toward earlier levels as trading progressed, with the ruble trading in a broader band as investors weighed global risk sentiment and domestic policy signals. The euro also traded at levels near eighty-three rubles during the session, reflecting a mixed dynamic across major currency pairs. Analysts observed that such oscillations were part of a wider pattern of stabilization, aided by steady macroeconomic data, predictable central bank messaging, and ongoing sanctions-related effects that have reshaped the currency market over the past months. The overall message from market commentators was that the ruble was unlikely to break out of its current range in the near term unless there is a dramatic shift in external demand or in international financial conditions that would alter the balance of supply and demand for foreign currencies in Russia.