In the coming months, the Russian ruble is projected to gain ground against the dollar, euro, and yuan. A report from a prominent Russian daily cites insights from financial analyst Yaroslav Ostrovsky, presenting a cautious optimism about currency stability ahead.
According to Ostrovsky, by the end of May the ruble could move within approximately 86 to 96 per US dollar, with the euro anticipated to range between 93 and 103 rubles, and the yuan trading around 11.5 to 13.3 rubles. These projections reflect a belief that the ruble will strengthen as certain domestic and international dynamics unfold.
Ostrovsky points to several key drivers behind the expected ruble appreciation. He highlights ongoing sales of foreign currency earnings by exporters, which can supply demand for rubles in the market. He also notes that the Central Bank is likely to maintain its current interest rate, contributing to a favorable domestic funding environment. Additionally, the relative softness of monetary policy from major global players, such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, is seen as supportive of commodity-linked currencies like the ruble, given the global yield landscape.
On the downside, the ruble could face downward pressure if oil prices weaken, if there are shifts in Russia’s foreign policy posture, or if the dollar strengthens further on world markets. Nonetheless, Ostrovsky believes the factors supporting ruble strength are more influential in the near term, suggesting that exchange rates for the main currencies against the ruble are likely to stay near the lower ends of their established ranges in the coming months.
Earlier, analysts noted that the dollar would experience volatility due to unsettled conditions in foreign exchange markets and variables such as inflation and fluctuations in energy prices. One economist, previously associated with an economics department at a private university, suggested a March dollar range of roughly 87 to 92 rubles, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty.
In related news, a separate report indicated that Nigerian officials had criticized a major crypto exchange for contributing to shifts in the national exchange rate. This development is part of a broader conversation about how global financial events, including digital asset platforms, can influence currency markets and monetary policy.