A cautious view on currency holdings suggests Russians may consider purchasing dollars and euros without committing to a specific date, especially if there is a real need for funds. If the money is not urgently required, selling could be prudent regardless of any looming deadlines. This stance was shared in an interview with socialbites.ca by Alexander Abramov, who heads the laboratory for analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Presidential Academy. His assessment centers on practical liquidity management and the role of timely foreign exchange operations in protecting corporate and household budgets.
Abramov did not anticipate a dramatic shift in dollar or euro levels in April, yet he warned of a potential upward tilt in these currencies. In his view, the dollar might trade within the 90 to 92 ruble band, while the euro could hover around 99 to 101 rubles. He stressed that investment behavior was unlikely to undergo significant change, given that the exchange rate would show only minimal movement. The emphasis, instead, was on how investors and businesses respond to small, steady fluctuations rather than sudden, large swings in value.
Looking ahead, he explained that the effectiveness of Russia’s foreign exchange earnings mechanism could weaken slightly, exerting a modest downward pressure on the ruble. Another risk highlighted was a marginal reduction in the volume of foreign exchange sales by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance entering the market. In a scenario with moderately stable foreign exchange inflows, investment imports could grow at a faster pace, prompting companies to secure additional foreign currency for purchasing machinery and equipment. While these factors might exert some pressure on the ruble, Abramov noted that they were not deeply fundamental. He pointed out that a high interest rate, currently around 16 percent, together with currency controls, would continue to support the ruble’s resilience in the near term.
Data from the Moscow Stock Exchange showed the ruble values at 11:49 Moscow time with the dollar priced at 92.6 rubles and the euro at 100.5 rubles. These real-time figures reflect the ongoing market dynamics and the balancing act between currency supply, demand, and the policy environment that shapes daily movements in the ruble against major currencies.
In summary, the prevailing outlook suggests a cautious approach to currency exposure: moderate acceptance of gradual strength in the ruble, tempered by the certainty that policy measures and high interest rates provide a stabilizing backdrop. The economic landscape remains subject to shifts in import demand, capital flows, and the evolving stance of monetary authorities, which together determine the trajectory of the ruble in the near term.