Next week the ruble is expected to hold its recent momentum, with experts forecasting a continued strengthening against major world currencies. Analysts project the dollar trading in the band of 86 to 89 rubles, the euro within 94 to 98 rubles, and the yuan around 11.9 to 12.3 rubles. These projections come from Rossiyskaya Gazeta after consultations with Mikhail Vasiliev, the chief analyst at Sovcombank. The outlook reflects a belief that the ruble will maintain its resilience as market conditions evolve in early 2024, supported by underlying domestic and global dynamics rather than a sudden shift in investor sentiment.
Vasiliev points to two principal drivers behind the ruble’s current strength. First, a seasonal drop in demand for foreign currencies at the outset of the year reduces outward pressure on the ruble. Second, a robust supply of rubles persists in the internal market, helped by policy measures that require the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters. This combination reduces the need for local banks to acquire foreign currency, easing exchange rate pressure and allowing the ruble to hold firm against fluctuations in the international arena. The analyst notes that the presidential decree mandating the compulsory sale of foreign currency earnings continues to shape the supply environment, reinforcing the ruble’s relative stability during this period.
Additional support for the ruble in the coming week is expected from several complementary factors. There should be continued selling of yuan by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which can influence the ruble-yuan corridor and help stabilize the broader currency basket. Higher oil prices also contribute to a favorable current account balance and bolster confidence in the national currency. In addition, higher ruble-based interest rates provide a marginal yield advantage for domestic investors, further underpinning demand for the ruble and dampening speculative pressures. Taken together, these elements create a supportive backdrop that reduces the likelihood of sudden depreciation in the near term.
There is cautious consensus that in 2024 the ruble will not experience a sharp downturn. In recent discussions, an academic economist associated with the Moscow Financial University and cited by media outlets emphasized that, given current trajectories, the dollar price in rubles is unlikely to exceed extreme levels. The forecaster mentions a price range for the dollar near 85 to 95 rubles, illustrating a more measured expectation that aligns with the ongoing policy framework and market fundamentals. While short-term volatility is always possible, the overall narrative remains one of gradual stabilization rather than rapid depreciation, supported by fiscal discipline and steady energy revenues.
Earlier analyses by market commentators have highlighted a similar theme, noting that several structural elements have shifted to support the ruble. Market participants point to stronger trade balances, resilient commodity markets, and proactive currency management as factors that can temper volatility. While forecasts can diverge, the prevailing view is that the ruble will continue to trade within a reasonable corridor as domestic supply conditions and international energy markets interact in ways that favor the currency. These assessments reflect ongoing dialogue among economists, financial institutions, and government agencies about currency strategy and macroeconomic stability, and they underscore the careful balancing act required to navigate a dynamic global environment.