A senior executive at a major Russian bank suggests that the ruble’s value could stay supported in the near term as tax payments near their peak create a larger inflow of foreign currency into the market. Yet there are headwinds that could weigh on the currency. The individual is engaged in discussions with RIAMO about market dynamics.
Based on the forecast, the dollar is expected to trade in the 91 to 93 ruble range this week, while the euro may move between 98.5 and 100.5 rubles.
The expert notes that the ruble could face renewed pressure if foreign currency supply remains tight due to weakening export receipts. Shifts in oil prices, together with reports about rising US reserves, are not helping the situation and add to the sense of volatility in the short term.
According to the analyst, the central bank’s key rate decision may not drastically alter the ruble trajectory, a view that aligns with current market expectations. Still, the evolving data matters for traders and policymakers alike.
The same source points to a turning point in inflation expectations, which have cooled from 12.7% in January to about 11.9% in February. This shift supports cautious optimism among investors. There is also news that the ruble now accounts for a larger portion of Russia’s import payments from the United States and Africa, reinforcing its role in cross-border trade.
As of 12:43, the dollar trades at approximately 92.4 rubles on the Moscow Exchange, while the euro stands near 99.5 rubles, reflecting ongoing adjustments in currency markets throughout the day.
Earlier statements from the Central Bank Governor emphasized that the ruble’s exchange rate is not propped up by artificial interventions, a message that traders have tracked closely as they assess monetary policy signals and market resilience.