The outlook for the ruble in the coming week suggests a narrow trading band, hovering around 80 to 81.5 rubles per dollar. This assessment comes from private market analyst Fedor Sidorov, who runs the Practical Investment School. He believes the dollar will trade within this bracket, while the euro is expected to move between 88 and 89.5 rubles.
According to Sidorov, oil prices continue to influence the ruble, yet the currency should receive additional support from the start of the tax season. He notes that once the tax period ends, the ruble could become more sensitive to factors such as oil supply dynamics and the level of the federal budget deficit, potentially leading to a slight softening of the exchange rate at the start of May.
Earlier, the Moscow Exchange reported that the ruble weakened against the dollar and other major currencies at the start of trading. The dollar rose to around 81.67 rubles and the yuan to about 11.83 rubles, while the euro hovered near 89.54 rubles. These movements reflect short‑term shifts in demand and broader market sentiment as investors digest domestic fiscal signals and global energy trends.
In related commentary, analyst Fattah Mustafa has argued that the ruble is currently among the weaker currencies worldwide. He suggested that the current ruble‑to‑dollar level is largely speculative, with the implied value of the U.S. dollar in the market sometimes appearing to be in a much tighter range than official benchmarks suggest. This perspective highlights the tension between market expectations and official price levels as traders weigh risk and potential policy moves.
Market observers stress that near‑term dynamics will hinge on how the tax cycle unfolds, oil price fluctuations, and any shifts in budgetary policy. Traders will be watching shifts in energy supply indicators, government deficit projections, and the broader global stance toward commodity currencies. The next few weeks are likely to bring limited volatility if the tax period proceeds smoothly, but any surprises in fiscal data or energy markets could reframe the ruble outlook with renewed volatility.