The deputy director of the Development Center at the Institute of the Higher School of Economics, Valery Mironov, spoke in an interview about the ruble’s trajectory and the dollar’s potential to exceed 100 rubles by 2026. He cited a pessimistic forecast for the ruble that aligns with official projections, noting that such estimates can still reflect real possibilities given evolving economic conditions in the coming years.
Mironov pointed out that the factors influencing the ruble are not fixed. Their weight and impact can shift as circumstances change, and economists rely on highly sophisticated models to forecast exchange rates. The results produced by these models are shaped by a blend of underlying assumptions and complex calculations embedded in the forecasting framework. In this context, analysts and policymakers often place trust in the outcomes that their models generate, even as real-world conditions continue to evolve.
According to the expert, a weaker currency can have certain advantages for the economy. A depreciation of the ruble tends to boost export revenues, which can enlarge the budget’s receipts, while it can also reduce the relative demand for imports. This dynamic, Mironov noted, is one of the reasons why some level of currency weakness is seen as beneficial in a broad macroeconomic sense, particularly in a period of structural reform and increased export activity.
Looking ahead, Mironov suggested that the expectation of a dollar at or above 100 rubles is plausible over a multi-year horizon, though he cautioned that changes in three years could substantially alter the outlook. Currency paths are sensitive to a range of developments, including commodity prices, monetary policy choices, and global risk factors, all of which can tilt the balance in unexpected directions.
Earlier commentary from another prominent market economist, Ilya Fedorov, emphasized why the dollar might not stay near 70 rubles for long. His assessment underscored the shifting macroeconomic landscape and the potential for notable movement in exchange rates as conditions evolve. In contrast, the euro has at times traded above the 100-ruble mark, signaling a period of heightened volatility across major European and regional currencies.
These insights reflect a broader discretion among analysts who monitor currency markets closely. While forecasts provide a framework for planning, real outcomes depend on how quickly economic fundamentals and policy responses adapt to changing pressures. Investors and businesses typically prepare for a range of scenarios, recognizing that the path of the ruble is shaped by both domestic policy signals and international developments.
In summary, the current view acknowledges the possibility of a 100 ruble per dollar level within a three-year window, yet it remains contingent on a shifting mix of drivers. The exchange rate forecast rests on layered analyses that combine economic indicators, liquidity conditions, and geopolitical factors, all of which can oscillate and redefine the trajectory of both the ruble and the major international currencies.