By late November, analysts in the currency market anticipate that the dollar could dip below 90 rubles, a scenario highlighted by Denis Buivolov, an analyst at BCS World of Investments, who spoke to socialbites.ca after the Moscow Exchange saw the US dollar briefly touch 90.3775 rubles on a Tuesday. The forecast reflects a balance of domestic and external factors shaping the ruble and its peers at the season’s end.
Forecasts at hand suggest that the ruble will not gain substantial strength from current levels within the year. With the tax period adding a seasonal inflow in state revenues, there is a plausible path for the dollar to test values beneath 90 rubles toward the end of November. In a broader view, considering a likely decline in oil prices in November which can delay ruble appreciation, and recognizing higher budget outlays as the year closes, the Expert foresees the dollar stabilizing around the 91–94 ruble zone in the near term. This assessment captures the interplay between commodity prices, fiscal policy, and monetary dynamics that influence the ruble’s trajectory.
Buivolov also projected that the euro could finish the year within the 96–99 ruble range, while the yuan might close around 12.2–12.6 rubles, indicating diverse cross-currency movements amid shifting global and domestic conditions.
The dollar’s fall below 91 rubles on a Tuesday marked a notable milestone, marking the first such move since July 28, 2023, and underscoring the ruble’s sensitivity to policy signals and market expectations at the time.
The ruble has been strengthening against the dollar, euro, and yuan since the evening of October 11, a period during which authorities signaled a revival of foreign currency earnings sales by Russia’s largest exporters. The trend has been reinforced by a 200 basis point hike in the Central Bank of Russia’s key rate, lifting it to 15 percent per year, alongside the October tax cycle. These developments have contributed to a more favorable liquidity environment and a reshaped supply-demand dynamic in the FX market. The discussion around these changes is informed by market analyses and commentary from financial press, including detailed assessments in coverage by Newspapers.Ru, which analysts use to gauge systemic responses and potential spillovers across asset classes.
Analysts continue to monitor fiscal and policy signals for further ruble strengthening, particularly in the context of ongoing macroeconomic adjustments and external demand shifts that influence currency valuations across major pairs.