By the close of 2023, the ruble could sit in a corridor around 85 to 90 per US dollar, according to Nikita Maslennikov, an economist and leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. He noted that the recent movement in the ruble has been driven in large part by the surge in foreign currency being sold on the market, a trend linked to the decree issued by President Vladimir Putin requiring exporters to convert a portion of their earnings into rubles. Maslennikov explained that this policy has added a capitalization dynamic to the currency markets, helping to steady the ruble against the dollar in the short term.
He also highlighted that the ruble’s trajectory is influenced by the timing of the tax period. As tax payments are collected, the market often faces additional liquidity pressure, which can translate into a temporary strengthening period for the ruble. The expert projected that the ruble could finish November near the 85 to 86 per dollar mark, assuming current conditions persist and seasonal factors remain in play.
According to Maslennikov, several existing headwinds and tailwinds currently favor the ruble. On one hand, sustained demand for the currency from exporters and a broader appreciation trend in emerging markets support the ruble. On the other hand, global financial conditions, commodity price movements, and policy expectations in Moscow will continue to shape price action into the final weeks of the year.
On the previous day, the dollar’s exchange rate in Russia opened below the 88 ruble level for the first time since June, signaling potential further movement in the ruble as traders reassess near-term risks and opportunities. In conversation with market observers, financier Alexander Losev suggested that the ruble could exhibit additional strength in the near term, with forecasts for 2024 pointing toward a dollar range of 80 to 85 rubles. He added his expectation that by year’s end the dollar could settle in the 85 to 90 ruble band, subject to the evolving balance of supply and demand.
Meanwhile, some former financial practitioners warned that the ruble could face renewed pressures ahead, emphasizing that external developments and policy shifts could reverse any gains. In that view, the exchange rate remains sensitive to a range of macroeconomic factors, including export dynamics, capital flows, and the trajectory of energy prices, which collectively influence investor sentiment and currency valuations as the year concludes.