During the autumn months, the ruble may soften modestly against major currencies. A plausible range for the dollar is around 94–96 rubles, while the euro could hover near 105–107 rubles. This outlook was outlined to BUSINESS Online by Alexander Potavin, an analyst with Finam Financial Group. According to his assessment, this trajectory could hold through the end of 2024.
Potavin pointed to August’s oil price dynamics, noting notable volatility. Yet, on average, oil prices finished the month about 7% below July levels. At the same time, Russia has seen a gradual fall in oil export volumes in recent weeks. In his view, this combination tends to reduce the inflow of foreign exchange into the country over the next one and a half to two months, potentially nudging the ruble lower in the near term.
Several domestic factors could weigh on the ruble as well. The currency might face pressure from headwinds in cross-border payments, persistent government spending already set for the year, and a slower pace of imports driven by rising inflation. Each of these elements can affect the balance of payments and, in turn, the currency’s strength in the market.
Maxim Timoshenko, who runs the Financial Markets Operations Department at Russian Standard Bank, offered his own near-term view. From September 2 to 6, he forecast the dollar trading around 90–92 rubles, with the euro operating in a 99–101 ruble band. He attributed this stability to the central bank’s ongoing tight monetary policy, which continues to support the ruble by curbing excessive liquidity and reinforcing price discipline in financial markets.
In related commentary, there were remarks about the strategic role of BRICS discussions in reducing dependence on the dollar. Observers have suggested that a broader shift in reserve currencies could shape regional and global trade patterns over the longer term. While such shifts are gradual, they contribute to an atmosphere of cautious optimism about alternative settlement arrangements and currency diversification among developing economies.
Analysts emphasize that the ruble’s performance will hinge on several interlinked forces. Oil market fundamentals, fiscal policy effectiveness, and the ease of international payments all play a part in shaping daily exchange rate movements. Traders are advised to monitor inflation trajectories, import demand, and external financing conditions as the year progresses. For market participants, this combination of considerations suggests continued volatility with occasional spikes, punctuated by periods of relative steadiness when policy signals and commodity prices align in favor of the ruble.