Looking ahead, the ruble is expected to experience greater fluctuations as the newest round of US anti-Russian sanctions goes into effect. Nikita Kulagin, who heads Sovcombank’s macroeconomic analysis department, warned that volatility could rise in the coming weeks and months. In practical terms, this could mean renewed pressure on the foreign trade payments system, especially during the spring and summer season when importers often encounter frictions in settling deals. The ruble’s path will hinge on how quickly importers secure the necessary currency and how smoothly exporters can repatriate earnings from abroad. If payments slow or are delayed, the currency could weaken; if importers halt trading and banks hesitate, the ruble could strengthen temporarily as part of a wider pattern of shifting demand and supply in the currency market.
On the one hand, this year’s spring and summer dynamics may recur, with importers experiencing difficulties in making foreign payments. That tends to dampen demand for foreign currency and can be supportive of the ruble in the near term. On the other hand, exporters may face delays in receiving revenue from foreign buyers, leading them to sell smaller amounts of currency and exerting downward pressure on the ruble. The balance between these opposing forces will determine the net ruble trajectory in the months ahead and will reflect how sanctions interact with international banking routines and trade financing channels.
Kulagin also acknowledged that payments abroad could become more challenging for Russians. However, he emphasized that the public still has avenues to conduct transactions through banks that are not subject to sanctions, though those routes come with caveats. For residents of Canada and the United States, this shift matters because it can influence cross-border trade costs, living expenses, and the liquidity environment that global markets rely on in times of policy change.
The economist also outlined how individuals can reduce sanctions-related risks. In the current climate, diversification is essential. Kulagin recommends spreading funds across foreign currencies and across different instruments and custodians. By doing so, a person lowers the risk that new sanctions would leave them unable to access some of their assets. The key idea is to avoid concentrating everything in a single bank or instrument, especially one tied to a jurisdiction that could be affected by new restrictions.
Secondly, he advised giving preference to investments in assets located inside Russia. This approach minimizes infrastructure risk and eliminates the need to rely on international payment systems or foreign brokers. He noted that ruble-denominated assets—such as deposits and the government bonds known as OFZs—are currently attractive from a pricing and yield perspective, making local investments a compelling option for preserving capital and maintaining liquidity in a sanctions environment.
Earlier, economist Tatyana Podolskaya explained strategies Russians can use to manage currency risk and avoid avoidable losses when investing in dollars. Her guidance focuses on prudent currency allocation, diversification, and choosing instruments that provide protection against sudden shifts in policy and market liquidity. These perspectives complement Kulagin’s analysis by offering a practical framework for navigating sanctions-driven uncertainty while maintaining access to funds and opportunities in a volatile global landscape.