Following the U.S. presidential elections, analysts anticipate the dollar to hover around 94–95 rubles. This projection was shared with socialbites.ca by Albert Koroev, who heads the stock market analytics department at BCS World of Investments.
Koroev explained that the ruble is likely to weaken to this level as the year progresses, with a broader set of external pressures shaping the currency picture. Among exchange-traded assets, some investors are turning to substitute bonds as potentially resilient options in a market dominated by narrow liquidity and policy constraints. The ruble’s movement is closely tied to the balance of exports and imports, a balance that has been stressed by sanctions and the accompanying disruption to payment flows. The analyst noted that while import payment problems may ease gradually, sanctions are set to continue elevating the costs of these payments over time.
In this scenario, demand for foreign currencies is expected to rise, nudging the dollar higher against the ruble. Koroev also observed that during the summer months, authorities eased certain requirements related to compulsory repatriation and the sale of foreign exchange earnings by Russian exporters, a shift intended to modulate cash flow under tighter external conditions. These policy relaxations are seen as temporary measures aimed at preserving liquidity while structural challenges in the external sector persist.
At present, the dollar trades near 89 rubles in the over-the-counter market, a level that may act as a reference point for traders weighing the trajectory of the ruble through the second half of the year. Market participants will be watching central bank signals, export receipts, and the evolving cost of sanctions as key drivers of exchange rate dynamics.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election, scheduled for November 5, 2024, marks a significant political milestone. Analysts and investors alike will assess potential policy shifts, global risk sentiment, and the resulting impact on capital flows and currency markets. The event is expected to influence not only the U.S. economy but also global financial conditions, including those in commodity-rich emerging markets.
Previously, experts offered a range of scenarios for dollar, euro, and yuan movements through year-end, highlighting uncertainties around policy responses, sanction regimes, and macroeconomic resilience. The evolving narrative emphasizes how currency markets respond to political milestones and the broader geopolitical landscape, with traders calibrating bets in response to new information and evolving risk assessments. [Citation: Market analysts at BCS World of Investments]