After Donald Trump’s inauguration, the ruble is not expected to swing sharply against the dollar. Market observers in Russia and beyond say meaningful moves would occur only if the new US administration takes unexpected steps early on. Dmitry Tselishchev, the general director of Ricom-Trust, notes that the inauguration itself is unlikely to be a decisive driver for markets in the near term. In his view, the currency pair will respond more to global risk sentiment and to the country’s own fundamentals than to a ceremonial transfer of power in Washington.
From a market perspective, the event carries limited immediate significance. Traders will keep an eye on the broader macro picture, including energy prices, trade balances, and domestic policy signals, while the ruble remains tethered to the health of Russia’s economy. For investors in Canada and the United States, this stance offers a gauge of how regional risk appetite may ripple into currency and commodity markets across North America.
Analysts at Finansör argue that any short term movements will hinge on the current state of the domestic market. If conditions hold steady, the ruble could drift in a narrow range, guided by solid export earnings and stable tax receipts rather than Washington’s transition alone.
Tselishchev adds that the ruble could strengthen slightly in the near term thanks to a stable trade balance and the tax period expected at the month’s end. Under such conditions, the ruble could trade roughly around 100.5 to 101 per dollar, presenting a modest upside for those counting on temporary resilience in the currency.
Yet a different scenario could unfold if the Trump administration follows through with promised tariffs on imports. In that case, global economic expectations could shift and the United States could face higher inflation, pushing the ruble weaker and possibly sending USD/RUB toward 115 or higher. Tselishchev notes that such policy moves would reverberate through financial markets and impact risk premia across North American and European trading desks.
Analyst Alexander Potavin, speaking a day earlier, highlighted that Trump’s arrival at the White House could influence Russia–US relations and, as a result, the ruble’s trajectory. While the outcome remains uncertain, shifts in diplomacy and tariff policy would add volatility to currency markets that include North American participants and exporters who rely on favorable hedging strategies.
Earlier, RIAC suggested that the Trump era would not halt dedollarization. The ongoing process of gradually reducing the dollar’s role in certain trade channels could persist despite leadership changes, a signal for North American traders to monitor the currency composition of their import and export flows and adjust hedges accordingly.