The ruble swung in early trading, with the dollar at 87.58 rubles on January 16, before momentum shifted in the session. At the outset, the dollar briefly touched 88.13 rubles, while the Chinese yuan rose to 12.14 rubles.
Moments later, the yuan slipped to 12.12 rubles and the euro hovered around 95.74 rubles. In that sense, all three currencies reached new lows not seen since mid-2023, underscoring heightened caution among traders.
Looking ahead, preliminary calculations for the next day showed the dollar easing by 0.02 rubles, the yuan by 0.01 rubles, and the euro by 0.27 rubles from the previous close, signaling tentative stabilization in the short term. Market watchers note that such moves often reflect a mix of domestic policy signals and global risk sentiment. A recent discussion among market operators highlighted the impact of fiscal policy actions, including foreign exchange sales within theBudget Rule framework, on the ruble’s trajectory. [Source: market briefings and central bank communications]
Forecasts for the January 15–19 window suggested a range where the dollar might settle between 86 and 88 rubles, with the euro anticipated between 95 and 97 rubles. These projections reflect ongoing assessments of commodity prices, fiscal policy, and domestic liquidity conditions. [Market consensus summary]
Analysts note that the ruble’s path in 2024 will depend on multiple factors, including oil price dynamics, inflation trends, and intervention policies. Some observers argue that a sharp depreciation is unlikely, with a broad range around 85–95 rubles per dollar considered plausible for the year. [Credit market and economic research notes]
Earlier discussions of oil price movements highlighted their potential influence on the dollar-ruble exchange rate, emphasizing the interconnectedness of energy markets and currency valuations. [Energy market commentary]