The Central Bank of the Russian Federation published the official exchange rates for the weekend and the coming Monday, reflecting modest gains for the ruble against the dollar. The regulator lowered the dollar rate from 97.24 rubles to 96.07 rubles on Friday, a move aligned with weekend clearing practices. The data is available on the Bank’s website and represents the reference path for traders, lenders, and travelers during periods of lighter liquidity. Markets often see these weekend fixes as a signal of short term sentiment, influenced by oil prices, sanctions rhetoric, and global risk appetite. While intraday moves happen, the official rate provides a stable anchor for planning and pricing across the next few days.
The official euro rate was also lowered, with the Bank of Russia setting the euro at 105.11 rubles, down from 106.5 rubles the previous day. This shift mirrors broader euro area dynamics and the currency’s sensitivity to risk sentiment and energy costs. Traders watch how the ruble negotiates its path against the euro as the region faces inflation dynamics, growth data, and policy signals. The rate cut offers relief to importers facing euro denominated costs and gives exporters a bit more price stability as markets transition into the new week.
The yuan rate declined from 13.69 rubles to 13.47 rubles as part of ongoing adjustments in the ruble yuan corridor. Analysts say the ruble remains reactive to shifts in Chinese demand for energy and commodities and to the overall tone of trade relations. The rate move matters for contracts settled in yuan and ruble when bilateral trade expands, particularly in sectors linked to energy and raw materials. Investors monitor the pair for clues about regional economic health and currency strategy amid global trade tensions.
Investment advisor Sergei Varfolomeev stated that by the end of this year the dollar could cost around 100 rubles and the euro around 110 rubles. For early 2025 he sees roughly 105 rubles for the dollar and 115 rubles for the euro. Varfolomeev bases these projections on current data about oil prices, sanctions, and US policy, noting that shocks to commodity markets or financial conditions could tilt outcomes. His outlook sits within a range of scenarios in which the ruble remains vulnerable to energy price swings and policy moves, even as some indicators suggest relative steadiness in certain weeks. Traders compare his forecasts with other indicators, the central bank guidance, and fiscal measures to gauge exposure and risk.
Before the weekend move, Alfa-Forex General Manager Guzel Protsenko suggested that the dollar could touch 100 rubles, yet he clarified that such a scenario would not be the base case. He points to a broader pattern of variability as markets digest energy data and US economic signals. On a different note, former Wall Street star Jim Rogers praised the gains in dollar terms after the US presidential elections, highlighting how political events can shape currency narratives and investor sentiment. The exchanges of opinion among analysts reflect the wide range of possible paths for the ruble, with outcomes shaped by commodity prices, policy steps, and global risk appetite.