At 10:32 Moscow time, the US dollar traded around 90.88 rubles, while the euro hovered near 94.78 rubles. The shift arrived during a session marked by renewed volatility, as traders weighed domestic signals against global risk factors that influence demand for the ruble. Market observers noted increased activity as the morning session unfolded, with liquidity rising after overnight trading, enabling more pronounced moves in both directions. The ruble’s path continued to reflect movements in oil prices, trade dynamics, and expectations about central bank policy. Data from market monitoring portals show the currency pair drifting away from recent peaks, with the dollar and the euro giving up ground against the ruble. Analysts briefed on the session described a blend of shifting risk appetite and evolving macro indicators as the main drivers shaping today’s rhythm in the FX market. In this environment, the ruble moved within a wider trading corridor where gains and losses are weighed against external price pressures and domestic policy signals, reinforcing the sense that the currency remains sensitive to sentiment shifts and energy fundamentals.
In the morning opening, the USD faced a notable retreat, a decline not seen since early October 2024. The dollar slipped by several rubles from its earlier levels, and the euro fell in tandem, illustrating a broad unwind of USD and EUR positions against the ruble. The development was accompanied by roughly a 2.83 percent decline since the month began, a figure market commentators flagged as part of a wider pattern of currency adjustments in this cycle. Data from FX desks indicate the move represented a meaningful, though temporary, correction within the context of ongoing volatility. Traders have watched for shifts in energy prices and sanctions rhetoric, both of which can affect the tempo of ruble movements. The reaction reflects a market recalibration as investors reassess relative value and risk, with the ruble acting as a barometer for domestic resilience and external pressures.
On Thursday, economist Igor Balynin, a candidate of economic sciences and associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, noted that Russians who purchased dollars between January 12 and February 12, 2025 faced losses of about 9 percent, equating to roughly 9 thousand rubles for every 100 thousand rubles invested. The assessment aligns with observed drawdowns in foreign currency holdings during that window, showing how shifts in the exchange rate translate into real value changes for savers and businesses alike. Balynin emphasized that such outcomes underscore the risks inherent in short to medium term currency bets and the sensitivity of dollar and euro positions to both domestic policy signals and international price dynamics. The practical implication, as reported by market analysts of the Financial University, is a reminder that currency exposure can erode capital quickly when volatility spikes and inflation dynamics tighten the mix of expectations for monetary action.
Currently Balynin advised caution regarding foreign currency investments, particularly in more volatile or unreliable options. He recommended keeping funds in rubles, especially in the currency used to pay salaries, as a prudent approach under the current circumstances. The economist pointed to easing inflation and attractive ruble deposit rates as a safer route for preserving purchasing power and achieving modest growth in savings. This stance reflects a broader view that ruble-denominated assets and income streams offer a steadier risk profile compared with more speculative foreign currency bets. Balynin’s commentary, cited by market briefings, underscores a preference for domestic financial instruments and income in ruble terms as a sensible hedge against ongoing currency volatility and policy uncertainty.
Earlier remarks from economists suggested a period when the dollar could be notably cheaper than earlier expectations in the spring, setting a backdrop against which current fluctuations are judged. Market participants continue to monitor the interplay between inflation, deposit rates, and currency valuations, with the ruble responding to both domestic inputs and global price movements. While some analysts see room for renewed stabilization, others warn that rapid shifts in risk appetite could reintroduce volatility across USD and EUR quotes. In this context, the exchange rates for USD and EUR against the ruble remain a focal point for investors and businesses, guiding decisions on hedging, pricing, and capital allocation in Russia and among international partners with exposure to Russian markets. The ongoing narrative is one of cautious optimism tempered by vigilance over policy signals, energy markets, and the global macro landscape, as traders seek clarity on the ruble’s ultimate direction.