Analysts in Russia expect that the ruble will not undergo a rapid drop in 2024. This forecast was shared with socialbites.ca by a regional economist who holds the degree of Candidate of Economic Sciences and serves as Associate Professor at the Basic Department of Financial Control, Analysis and Audit within the Main Control Directorate of the Moscow City REU. The expert, Yulia Kovalenko, relates her view on whether the dollar could reach 100 rubles in the coming year.
According to the economist, the dollar should trade within the 85 to 95 ruble range this year, barring unexpected shocks.
Since October 2023, the ruble has shown a degree of stabilization, with the dollar fluctuating roughly between 87 and 92 rubles. This stability is attributed to the presidential decree mandating the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters and to the tight monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Russia. The decree requires Russian exporters to convert a portion of their foreign revenue into rubles, helping to balance supply and demand in the domestic currency market.
The expert emphasized that sharp volatility in the ruble is unlikely in 2024. He noted that a sudden depreciation would require unforeseen external events, rather than domestic policy alone, to trigger a significant move.
He also acknowledged that Western sanctions continue to exert influence on global economic conditions. While exchange rate jumps are possible, they would likely occur only if unforeseen circumstances arise that are beyond the control of any single nation.
Recent trading on the Moscow Exchange saw the dollar at about 88.41 rubles. Since the start of the year, the value of both the U.S. and European currencies against the ruble has declined modestly, by roughly two percent. The question remains about where the dollar and the euro might bottom out in 2024, a topic that has been discussed in market analyses published by News.ru and other outlets, and referenced by the analytical program on BCS.
Earlier discussions on the BCS platform highlighted the potential drivers behind any sharp strengthening of the ruble, including domestic financial policy actions and external market dynamics. The current consensus, though, focuses on a gradual movement rather than abrupt shifts, with policy tools and market expectations interacting to maintain a relatively stable trajectory through the year.
In summary, the prevailing view among regional economists is that the ruble will remain relatively stable in the 80s to low 90s rubles per dollar range for much of 2024, subject to occasional fluctuations tied to global risk sentiment and external economic developments. While a dramatic collapse or surge is not anticipated, market participants should stay alert to policy signals and geopolitical developments that could alter the balance of supply and demand in the currency market, potentially nudging the ruble toward new levels if conditions shift suddenly.