Ruble Strengthens Amid VAT Payments and Central Bank Expectations
The euro rate on the Moscow Stock Exchange dipped to 99 rubles for the first time since mid-July. It then slipped further, standing at 98.87 rubles, down 1.69 percent, according to trading data from the Moscow Exchange. By 18:47 Moscow time the ruble level steadied, edging up to 98.91 rubles, while the dollar traded at 93.25 rubles, down 1.25 percent. The Chinese yuan also softened, trading at 12.71 rubles, down 1.3 percent, as Western currencies faced broader pressure.
Analysts note the ruble found support from companies preparing to remit value added tax for the third quarter. A strategist from BCS World of Investments, Alexander Bakhtin, highlighted that estimated VAT for oil sector workers could reach around ₽700 billion, versus about ₽300 billion in the second quarter. Markets also hold constructive views about the central bank potentially raising the ruble’s key rate, a topic discussed in recent market briefings (Interfax).
According to Andrey Kochetkov of Otkritie Investments, a decree governing foreign exchange sales helped strengthen the ruble over the past week and a half. The president has indicated that this trend might continue through October, with the objective of pushing the dollar below 90 rubles. Absent the decree, exporters were less active in foreign exchange operations.
Previously, an investment strategist forecasted the near-term ruble-to-dollar trajectory, reflecting ongoing market expectations around policy actions and demand for Russian currency in international trade.