During Friday trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the US dollar dipped to 76.98 rubles, slipping below the 77-ruble mark for the first time since March 31. The move was confirmed by market data available at 10:01 Moscow time and reflected a momentary shift in investor sentiment as cash and futures liquidity adjusted to evolving global risk factors.
By 10:13 Moscow time, the dollar had retraced some of its early softness, trading around 77.27 rubles as traders weighed domestic drivers against external pressures. The session produced renewed bargaining that kept the currency range modestly compressed, illustrating the delicate balance in the ruble’s valuation amid ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic developments.
Overall, both the dollar and the euro traded at their lowest levels for the year-to-date in the run-up to the weekend. The dollar hovered near the 78-ruble area, while the euro traded close to 85.98 rubles, underscoring a broader softening trend in major currencies against the ruble. Analysts highlighted several factors behind the move. A recent note from a market research federation pointed to a healthier Russian foreign trade environment as a potential contributor to ruble strength, supported by a narrowing oil-price gap between Urals and Brent crude. Oil markets have shown resilience, with Russia’s benchmark oil edging up toward the $60 per barrel mark, a notable rise from late winter levels around $50. This price action has implications for energy revenue projections and, in turn, for currency dynamics in the export-reliant economy. A parallel observation from market observers suggested that the import growth pace may be easing, which could add to a more favorable balance of payments picture in the near term.
Industry voices have offered divergent outlooks for the ruble. One analyst from Strategic Research notes that the ruble could trade within a wider corridor during May, with potential levels in the high 70s per dollar and the lower 90s per euro, depending on the trajectory of oil, global risk appetite, and domestic policy signals. Another analyst, a partner at Capital Lab, cautioned that the ruble could slip into the mid-to-high 70s per dollar territory if external pressures intensify or if oil prices retreat. The spectrum of opinions highlights the sensitivity of the currency to shifts in commodity markets and international financial sentiment, while also acknowledging the impact of local trade dynamics and policy stances on the ruble’s fundamentals. (Market observations and analyst commentary credited to corresponding research firms and industry commentators.)