Looking to the coming week, market observers expect the dollar to trade near 98 rubles, the euro around 106 rubles, and the yuan in the 13.7 to 13.8 ruble range. This projection circulates in market briefings as traders weigh the forces shaping the ruble, from trade balances to policy signals. The balance of payments remains a key driver, and currency risk is shaped by how exporters and importers adjust to shifting conditions.
The ruble could slip modestly in the near term. A persistent foreign trade imbalance continues to press on the currency as the supply of foreign currency on the market tightens due to a drop in exports, while demand for foreign funds grows as import activity picks up ahead of year end. Seasonal patterns toward the end of the year tend to amplify these moves, creating a cautious mood among market participants.
Analysts point to rising liquidity as a driver behind this trend. They note the government’s fiscal calendar and the rush to process payments for public orders, along with stronger demand for imports before the New Year, all feeding into currency dynamics and adding pressure to the money supply.
Tighter monetary policy and ongoing exchange controls appear to anchor the ruble for now. In the coming week, policymakers are expected to outline the level of daily currency transactions under the fiscal rule for the month ahead. If net foreign exchange sales rise, the currency could lack significant support, according to market watchers.
The forecast envisions a potential improvement by late November during the tax period, with targeted levels around 13.5 rubles per yuan, 95 rubles per dollar, and 102 rubles per euro. Still, the overall outlook suggests that ruble weakness could persist into December as external and domestic pressures remain in play.
In late October, the currency market saw the dollar trading above 97 rubles and the euro above 105 rubles in over-the-counter trading, with the yuan pricing near the ruble at the close of a major regional session. Market participants are watching these levels closely as seasonality and policy changes interact, shaping near-term volatility and longer-term expectations. Two observations from earlier commentary remain relevant: a weaker ruble can, at times, bolster export competitiveness and help adjust budget dynamics as revenue streams shift.