Ruble Forecast: 92-95 per Dollar in Focus

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Next week, the ruble is projected to trade in the 92 to 95 per dollar range. This forecast came to socialbites.ca from Denis Buivolov, an analyst at BCS World of Investments. Buivolov notes that the ruble has solid support from exporters who are converting a large portion of their foreign currency earnings into rubles, stabilizing the currency despite market volatility.

He explains that the Central Bank’s policy stance contributes to this resilience. A rise in the key policy rate by 200 basis points, bringing it up to 15 percent, could strengthen the ruble over the medium term by improving the yield appeal of Russian assets and reducing near-term downside pressure on the currency.

Oil prices are likely to hover at relatively elevated levels near $90 per barrel, using the North Sea benchmark Brent as a reference point. Buivolov suggests that persistent high oil prices would support the ruble, even as other factors remain mixed on the global stage.

He also remarks that a softening dollar on the world market could lift oil prices further and benefit currencies of developing countries. This scenario would be helped if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease and the US Federal Reserve shows caution about further rate hikes. From a technical angle, the level around 92.5 rubles per dollar is seen as a key threshold that could guide near-term moves.

Looking further ahead, the consciousness around the dollar’s path in Russia implies expectations of a firmer ruble around the 90 ruble mark by late November, barring unexpected shocks. Buivolov points to recent moves where the dollar briefly hovered near 91.6 rubles as an indication that markets are watching for the next leg in this currency cycle, with traders balancing domestic policy signals against global risk sentiment.

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