An analyst from a major CMS group discussed the ruble’s trajectory in late February 2023, explaining that the US dollar was strengthening against most currencies, ruble included. On the Moscow Stock Exchange, the dollar hovered around 74.65 rubles at a specific moment in the late afternoon hours. The trend was clear: the dollar was gaining strength across the board, and the ruble had shed a notable portion of its value since the end of January 2023, exceeding 7 percent in that period.
The analyst highlighted the possibility of the dollar rising to the 76-78 ruble range in the tail end of February or the start of March, citing a combination of external and internal pressures. Key factors mentioned included intensified sanctions pressure following the European Union’s 10th package against Russia, a recent dip in oil prices, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, which suggested a higher key policy rate and a tighter monetary outlook. These elements were seen as supportive of a stronger dollar and a relatively weaker ruble in the near term.
Additionally, the analyst pointed to the timing of payments to exporting companies under the budget rule, expected around February 27. This liquidity event could provide some temporary support to the ruble by backing export earnings and reducing pressure on the currency. In turn, a firmer dollar might bolster the federal budget’s revenue, which, in the broader view, would influence the economy in a positive way by sustaining export-led growth and government finances.
While this forecast suggested continued dollar strength, other experts offered a more balanced perspective. A separate analyst from a prominent financial information platform suggested that the ruble could retreat toward roughly 72.5 rubles per dollar within the week, signaling a short-term pullback. Meanwhile, another financial analyst noted that the ruble could begin recovering some of its recent losses against both the dollar and the euro toward the end of February, reflecting a delayed rebound in currency market dynamics and the influence of global risk sentiment on commodity-linked currencies.
Overall, market observers emphasized two interlinked themes: the sensitivity of the ruble to sanctions-related developments and to the swings in energy prices, and the overall risk environment shaped by U.S. monetary policy. These factors together painted a picture of a currency market marked by heightened volatility, with brief rallies possible on favorable liquidity conditions and fiscal timing, yet facing ongoing downside risks from external policy actions and shifts in global demand for oil and other commodities.
Investors and economic watchers were advised to monitor the ongoing policy signals from major central banks, the evolution of sanctions regimes, and the timing of payments that impact export earnings. As the year progressed, the balance between external constraints and domestic fiscal resilience would continue to shape the ruble’s path, influencing inflation pressures, trade dynamics, and the government’s fiscal outlook. In short, the ruble’s near-term movements were likely to reflect a tug-of-war between sanctions intensity, commodity price trends, and monetary policy expectations, with the dollar often serving as the primary barometer of global capital flows.