The ruble’s depreciation is tied to foreign trade patterns and a weaker first-quarter current account in 2023, as stated by Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s central bank, during the Financial Congress of the Central Bank of Russia.
“First, the trajectory of foreign trade must be examined. It largely drives the currency’s path,” Nabiullina noted.
She pointed out that the first-quarter current account balance of operations was five times smaller than its peak in 2022, underscoring a shift in the external sector’s contribution to the ruble’s movements.
Inflation risks now shape exchange-rate dynamics, and the central bank intends to factor this into decisions on the key rate. Inflationary shocks occur more often here than in many other countries, yet regulatory confidence is growing, as reflected in lending trends observed by the central bank’s leadership.
According to Nabiullina, the monetary-policy regime demonstrates effectiveness in calm times, during shocks, and amid the ongoing structural transformation that the economy is undergoing.
On Thursday morning, the Moscow exchange saw the dollar push above 93 rubles and the euro surpass the 100-ruble threshold, reaching around 102 rubles. These levels mark the first time since March 2022 that both currencies have traded at or beyond those marks, according to market reports.
Analysts from Alfa Capital Management noted that all fundamental factors are contributing to a softening of ruble positions. One senior trader suggested that July budget deficit projections and the finance ministry’s decision to reduce yuan sales in the new reporting period are shaping the currency picture. The central bank maintains that there are no financial risks for the economy, yet technical signals are limited in the face of a strong U.S. dollar that may require correction. (Interfax)
Promsvyazbank’s chief analyst highlighted ongoing demand from major players for foreign currency, with a rise in average market turnover supporting the trend. He attributed the effect partly to robust importer demand and the successful breach of the 90-ruble-per-dollar resistance amid geopolitical concerns. He also warned that large, one-off transactions could momentarily weaken the ruble. (Zhilnikov, Promsvyazbank)
According to the head of Sberbank, German Gref, the ruble should strengthen and extreme lows observed last year are not anticipated. He projected a year-end ruble level around 75–78 per dollar and indicated that volatility is normalizing as the economy adapts to new conditions. (Gref, Sberbank)
Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov attributed exchange-rate fluctuations to market speculation, noting that gains and losses often reflect speculative activity that cannot be ignored during periods of volatility. (Peskov, Kremlin press service)
Overall macro indicators in Russia have been described as better than expected, with some Key meetings between top leaders underscoring a sense of stability in the macro picture. (Peskov, press service)