According to Rosstat’s preliminary forecast, Russia’s GDP declined by 4% in the second quarter of 2022 when compared with the same period in 2021. This outcome comes from the Federal State Statistics Service, which tracks the national economy every quarter. The ministry stated that the physical volume index for gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2022, relative to the corresponding period in 2021, stood at 96.0 percent based on preliminary estimates. This figure indicates a contraction in real GDP for that quarter when measured against the prior year, reflecting changes in production and economic activity across major sectors.
Earlier in the year, the first quarter of 2022 recorded a physical volume index of 103.5 percent compared with the relevant period in 2021. Rosstat also noted that the index for the second quarter of 2021, when compared with the corresponding period of 2020, according to preliminary estimates, was 110.3 percent. These numbers illustrate how the economy has shifted over successive quarters, with a rebound in early 2021 followed by a slowdown in mid-2022 as external conditions evolved and domestic factors adjusted.
A preliminary estimate of the Russian GDP, as described by the service, relies on rapid statistical reporting from large and medium-sized enterprises in the non-financial sector of the economy. This approach enables timely insights into overall activity while acknowledging that revisions may follow as more complete data become available from the broader corporate base. Analysts and policymakers use these early figures to gauge momentum and to frame discussions about potential future trajectories.
In a separate briefing, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation suggested that the economy could return to its potential growth paths in 2025. The regulator outlined a baseline scenario in which economic activity would shrink through 2022 and much of 2023 as the economy adjusts to shifting external conditions. By 2025, the bank expects growth to resume within a range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent. The baseline scenario also envisions inflation easing to around 4 percent by 2024 and maintaining close to that level thereafter. This outlook is used to steer monetary policy decisions and to set expectations for households, businesses, and financial markets as conditions evolve.