St. Petersburg Tops the List for Potential Rental Price Growth in Large Cities
St. Petersburg has emerged as the city most at risk of further rises in the average rent for one-bedroom apartments among urban areas with populations exceeding one million. The assessment comes from a study conducted by Etazhi, a federal real estate analytics firm, and was reported by News.
Following St. Petersburg in the ranking are Moscow and Samara. In creating this rating, analysts examined three years of rental price movements, demand for short-term accommodations, and the balance between housing supply and demand in the rental market.
Alexander Ivanov, the top analyst at Etazhi, noted that the most pronounced year-over-year growth in average rents for one-bedroom units occurred in several populous cities, including Nizhny Novgorod, Chelyabinsk, and St. Petersburg itself. The study also highlighted notable increases in Volgograd and Perm, all within the large-city cohort.
In St. Petersburg, rents jumped by about 28.4 percent, yet even with this surge, current levels remain roughly 8 percent below the January 2023 peak. The analysis also points to a recurring shortage of affordable rental housing in the city, a factor contributing to ongoing price pressures.
In Moscow, rental prices rose by around 19.6 percent over the previous year, though they still sit roughly 5 percent below the early-2023 highs when compared with the start of that year. Samara showed a two-year lag of about 1.6 percent relative to its past pricing benchmark, indicating a softer trajectory in that market.
Analysts identified Chelyabinsk, Volgograd, Omsk, Rostov-on-Don, and Nizhny Novgorod as the markets that are most overheated. In these cities, rents increased by 30 to 57 percent over the last two years, signaling a potential correction in the near term as supply adjusts to demand and market conditions normalize.
Overall, experts anticipate a continued, moderate rise in rents of about 1 to 1.5 percent per month in major metropolitan areas. This outlook comes amid a projected tightening of mortgage lending, which could push more buyers toward long-term rental housing rather than ownership. The dynamic interplay between mortgage availability and rental demand is shaping a price landscape that favors landlords in the short term while creating affordability challenges for tenants in many markets.
The broader takeaway is that the rental market in Russia’s largest cities remains under upward pressure. While some cities exhibit pronounced growth, others show more cautious increases or temporary plateaus. Stakeholders—from renters and landlords to policymakers—will need to monitor supply trends, wage growth, and financing conditions as they navigate late-year and next-year pricing landscapes.
What remains clear is that the affordability squeeze in major centers is unlikely to ease quickly. As the market evolves, renters may increasingly consider longer-term leases or relocate to markets with more favorable price dynamics, while investors may re-evaluate rental strategies to balance yield against risk in an environment of fluctuating lending standards.
In summary, the recent data underscore a pattern of rising rents in large Russian cities, with the strongest momentum concentrated in St. Petersburg and Moscow. The next chapters of this market narrative will hinge on the rate of mortgage tightening, the pace of new rental housing stock, and the resilience of demand among urban residents seeking stability in housing costs.