Recent supplier reports to retail networks indicate that difficulties with last year’s rice harvest in the Krasnodar Territory could push prices higher by approximately 10% to 30%. This assessment is echoed by a major industry publication, which cites market participants and internal sources to outline how farm shortages ripple through the supply chain.
Producers of rice groats have told retailers that the cost of raw materials has risen due to harvest problems. In Krasnodar, a region responsible for a large share of the nation’s rice, unfavorable growing conditions have reduced grain quality. Persistent weed pressures during harvest further increased production costs, contributing to higher prices at the wholesale and retail levels.
Several market insiders report receiving formal price increase notices from their suppliers. The scope of these increases varies by supplier: some retail chains were informed of 15% to 30% hikes, while others were told to expect rises in the 8% to 19% range. A producer source suggests that the higher prices for rice groats could dampen demand and drive buyers toward cheaper staples, such as buckwheat.
Industry analysts now view the price rise as potentially self-limiting. Russia achieved a record grain output in 2022, reaching about 529 thousand tons, which could cushion the adverse price signals and help maintain overall supply for domestic markets. Retail chains are expected to space out price changes to avoid a sudden drop in sales. The Agriculture Ministry has stated that both the quality and volume of the crop in 2022 met domestic demand, leaving little justification for a broad price hike across staples.
In a related trend, a Grodan survey from February 2023 shows that more than a third of Russians—36%—began buying greenhouse cucumbers and tomatoes less frequently, and 12% stopped purchasing these vegetables altogether due to rising prices. This shift highlights how broader inflationary pressures can influence consumer choices beyond single-item markets, reinforcing the need for stable pricing across essential foods.