The World Bank updated its Russia GDP forecast for 2023, shifting from a previously projected contraction to a milder decline of 0.2 percent. This adjustment reflects unexpected strength in 2022 indicators and a smaller drop in oil and petroleum product production than initially anticipated. The prior forecast had been issued in January 2023, while an earlier projection in October 2022 had anticipated a 3.6 percent fall in GDP for 2023.
In parallel, market analysts expect the budget gap to widen by about 3.7 percent of GDP. The anticipated expansion is driven by larger government spending aimed at supporting the economy, coupled with a continued reduction in oil revenue. Inflation in consumer prices is forecast to average around 6 percent in 2023, with expectations that inflation will ease to roughly 4 percent in 2025.
Looking further ahead, growth is forecast to reach about 1.2 percent in 2024 and around 0.8 percent in 2025. The 2024 projection represents a downward revision of roughly 0.4 percentage points from the January outlook, reflecting evolving global and domestic conditions. These projections are part of ongoing assessments by major international bodies as they monitor how shifts in energy markets and domestic policy responses influence Russia’s macroeconomic trajectory.
Earlier analyses by the IMF indicated a potential global GDP slowdown of about 3 percent over a span of seven to ten years, underscoring the broad uncertainty surrounding international growth patterns and the spillover effects on commodity-dependent economies such as Russia. The interplay between oil revenues, fiscal policy, and exchange rate dynamics remains central to the outlook for Russia’s economy in the near to mid term. (World Bank; IMF assessments)