Real Estate Market Outlook and Financing Trends for North America and Beyond
With demand cooling in Russia, analysts expect only a modest rise in real estate prices through the end of 2024. This assessment comes from Interfax, citing the views of the DOM.RF Analytical Center. The takeaway is that price momentum is cooling, while the broader housing supply and lending environment remain under close watch by market participants in North America and elsewhere.
In 2023, house prices rose by about 10 percent. For 2024, experts anticipate a slowdown in price growth driven by higher mortgage rates and tighter credit conditions. The main pressure will be felt in the credit market segment, according to a recent analysis of housing sector dynamics. The message across analysts is clear: financing conditions could become the bottleneck even as demand holds at modest levels in several regions.
Mikhail Goldberg, head of the DOM.RF Analytical Center, notes that the sector has built a cushion of safety that should help developers weather the current period. He points out that more than half of the housing units in 2024 projects have already found buyers, suggesting solid demand in the near term. The data imply resilience in project pipelines and scheduled completions despite tighter financing.
Expanding family mortgage programs may help sustain demand as prices stabilize. Some observers do not rule out a possible dip in prices for secondary homes, a move that could raise the purchasing power of households in markets where affordability has tightened.
DOM.RF expects more construction of custom homes built through contractor networks and a broader use of escrow accounts in project financing. In the previous year, developers tapped escrow accounts for about 3.7 trillion rubles and accumulated a total of around 5.8 trillion rubles in escrow balances. This trend signals deeper reliance on trust structures to manage upfront payments and project funding.
On the lending side, the share of privileged housing loans has been substantial, comprising 45 percent of loan counts and 60 percent of loan amounts. In new-build financing, about 773 thousand loan disbursements were recorded, marking a notable year-over-year increase of roughly 42 percent from the prior period. These figures reflect a robust demand for owner-occupied housing and a steady flow of funds into construction projects.
Earlier industry chatter indicated a peak in consumer loan applications during January, underscoring cautious consumer behavior while searching for credit options.
In major metropolitan areas, discussions have focused on strategies to manage mortgage exposure and improve liquidity for homeowners. Steps to diversify credit products, extend repayment options, and broaden access to affordable financing remain central to planning for the next wave of housing activity.
Overall, the housing market appears to be transitioning into a phase of moderated growth, with mortgage cost and credit availability shaping the pace of activity more than outright price surges. Analysts emphasize careful navigation of financing channels and project funding to maintain momentum in the housing market across North America and international markets alike.
Attribution: Interfax reports reference the DOM.RF Analytical Center analyses and market commentary on housing sector development. Figures and interpretations reflect the analysts’ assessments and are presented here to illustrate the evolving landscape of real estate finance.