According to Mikhail Goldberg, the head of the analytical center at DOM.RF, mortgage rates are expected to ease by the end of 2025. The outlook, shared through DOM.RF channels, frames a cautious optimism for borrowers and lenders alike. In recent discussions, Goldberg noted that even if the economy takes a conservative path, a visible reduction in borrowing costs could emerge during the second half of the year, potentially in the fourth quarter. The message is that rates are unlikely to stay elevated for long, and any decline would help support demand in a market that has faced rounds of policy tightening. The forecast emphasizes a contingency dependent on broader macro conditions, including inflation trends, exchange rates, and fiscal policy decisions. This projection signals financial planners and homebuyers to monitor the evolving rate landscape as the year progresses. The commentary from DOM.RF also highlights that rates move in step with central bank signals, which influences long-term mortgage products, financing terms, and refinancing decisions in the months ahead.
Goldberg stressed that market conditions cannot be read in isolation. The health of mortgage demand will hinge on macro-political developments and the policy stance adopted by the central authorities. While domestic factors play a role, global financial conditions can filter through quickly, affecting pricing and loan availability. For North American readers, these dynamics mirror the broader reality that mortgage costs respond to policy changes and economic momentum, sometimes with a lag that rewards patience. Within the Russian context, the analyst pointed to the central bank as a major driver whose decisions ripple through the housing-finance sector. Investors and homeowners should expect volatility in the near term as policy debates unfold, with the potential for shifts in program eligibility, credit conditions, and risk appetites across lenders.
Goldberg reminded that the economy’s response to the Bank of Russia’s rate decisions arrives with a lag of roughly two quarters. As a result, the full impact of the current cycle of rate increases has not yet been felt in the economy and in lending terms. Analysts anticipate that the effect will begin to appear through the middle of next year as financial institutions adjust their pricing, risk assessments, and available products. This lag means borrowers should prepare for continued caution on loan approvals, documentation requirements, and the timing of refinancing. Banks and credit unions may also revise their credit criteria, influencing how easily households can secure mortgage financing at different loan-to-value levels. The message from DOM.RF is clear: policy changes will translate into real-world costs and terms in a gradual, predictable fashion, allowing market participants to plan accordingly.
DOM.RF’s forecast for year-end mortgage origination sits around 1.4 million loans, with total value near 5 trillion rubles. This projection represents a year-over-year decline of about 35 percent, reflecting tighter lending conditions and shifts in demand. For 2025, the forecast calls for roughly 1.3 million completed transactions, aggregating about 4.5 trillion rubles in loan activity. While the reference figures speak to a slower pace compared with peak periods, they provide a concrete benchmark for lenders, developers, and buyers as they navigate pricing, availability, and project timelines. The forecast underscores a market cooling after a period of heightened activity, signaling more deliberate decision-making among buyers who weigh loan costs, down payments, and monthly obligations before committing to purchases. The numbers serve as a framework for risk assessment and capital planning across the sector.
With the late-year sale season starting in November, the housing market follows seasonal patterns that buyers know well. Real estate professionals warn that the discount fervor of Black Friday should be met with caution. The rush to secure a deal can obscure underlying issues in a property, including latent defects, misrepresented conditions, or hidden costs in maintenance and legal transfer. Prospective buyers are urged to perform thorough due diligence, verify property disclosures, and compare mortgage offers from multiple lenders to avoid surprises from later adjustments or unexpected charges. In a market that often features fluctuating prices and shifting terms, patience and careful comparison shopping can prevent costly missteps. Industry experts advise a methodical approach to timing, funding, and valuation, especially when a busy period intersects with high demand.
Regional patterns serve as a reminder that some regions historically offer more affordable mortgage options than others. The analysis highlights areas where loan terms, down payments, and interest rates tend to be more favorable, creating opportunities for prospective homeowners to maximize affordability. For anyone evaluating housing options, this regional differentiation matters because it shapes both initial costs and long-term financial comfort. The current outlook makes clear that affordability remains an issue in many pockets of the market, even as rates fluctuate and lenders adjust to risk and demand.
Overall, the DOM.RF forecast paints a picture of a mortgage landscape that moves with policy shifts and macro signals. While rates may drift lower toward the end of next year, borrowers should stay prepared for a fluctuating environment. The message is not a call for panic but a reminder to plan carefully, compare offers, and account for shifting policy and market sentiment. For readers in Canada and the United States, these Russian market dynamics can offer a useful reference for understanding how macro factors and policy decisions shape mortgage pricing and credit conditions across borders. By staying informed and maintaining a flexible strategy, homebuyers and refinancers can navigate evolving rates with clearer expectations.