If the Central Bank of Russia holds the key rate steady through March, analysts believe real estate prices in Russia could begin a downward adjustment. This perspective was highlighted on the radio program Moscow Speaks by Konstantin Barsukov, a noted member of the Russian Association of Realtors. Barsukov pointed out that the trajectory of prices is closely tied to borrowing costs, and that stability at higher rates tends to cool demand while keeping supply relatively constrained. In his view, the current environment places more emphasis on the cost of money than on the immediate availability of homes, which can slow price declines even when activity slows elsewhere in the economy.
Barsukov argued that if the interest rate were to fall to 10% or below, apartment prices could start edging upward. His reasoning rests on a classic supply-demand dynamic: when financing is relatively affordable, buyers are more inclined to enter the market, while developers may accelerate new projects only after gauging demand at these lower costs. Yet, he stressed that this potential price uptick would emerge only if the market is not already overwhelmed with new listings. In a situation with limited inventory and restrained new construction, a drop in rates could rekindle demand more than it broadens supply in the short term.
During the same broadcast, Evgeniy Shlemenkov, Deputy Head of Russian Support and Head of Construction, Housing and Utilities, weighed in on the near-term mortgage landscape. He indicated that mortgage demand in Russia is likely to continue easing in the months ahead and that this softer appetite for loans could persist at least through the spring of the coming year. Despite the slower financing activity, he cautioned that housing prices were not expected to fall as a result, suggesting that other factors such as construction costs, regional pricing dynamics, and ongoing demand fundamentals play a significant role in keeping price levels relatively firm while lending tightens.
Against this backdrop, the market watchers have repeated a common caution to buyers: there are strategies to make mortgage payments more manageable, especially when loan rates are high. Homebuyers and households can explore options such as improving credit profiles, comparing fixed versus variable rate products, and budgeting to accommodate potential shifts in monthly payments. The overarching message is that while interest rates exert a strong influence on affordability, price movements in the real estate sector are governed by a broader mix of demand, supply, and financing conditions that evolve over time. Investors and residents alike keep a close eye on policy signals and economic indicators because the balance between demand and supply continues to determine whether prices hold steady, drift upward, or drift downward in the months ahead.