Economists at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) project that the Russian economy will continue its growth trajectory even as sanctions tighten further. This forecast is detailed in the article “High risks and weak economic growth rates: macro forecast for Russia in the medium term,” which appears in the scientific journal Economic Problems. The study’s authors, who teach at the Institute of Applied Economic Research within RANEPA, explored two distinct development paths for 2024 through 2026. In both scenarios, the pressure from sanctions increases, with the sole difference being the speed at which new restrictions are introduced and reflected in the economy.
Under the conservative scenario, GDP growth is expected to slow markedly to around 0.3 percent in 2024. However, the pace should pick up in subsequent years, reaching about 1.4 to 1.5 percent. Inflation is projected to rise to roughly 8 percent before easing to about 4 percent by 2026. This pathway portrays an economy facing stiffer price pressures but gradually regaining growth momentum as structural adjustments take hold and external constraints stabilize at a workable level.
In the base scenario, the outlook is more favorable: growth in the 2024–2026 window is anticipated to run between 1.5 and 2.2 percent annually. Inflation would retreat to the 4 percent target by 2025, signaling a return to price stability that supports consumer confidence and purchasing power. Real household income is projected to increase by approximately 2 percent each year, reinforcing a positive trend in living standards and offsetting some of the immediate impacts of sanctions by sustaining domestic demand.
The researchers emphasize that the Russian economy demonstrated greater resilience to sanctions than initially expected. They note that the most recent restrictive measures did not create additional fundamental hurdles, and that future sanctions are largely foreseeable within the current policy environment. This combination of resilience and predictability enables authorities to calibrate policy responses and mitigate negative spillovers, helping to preserve macroeconomic stability while maintaining strategic adaptations across sectors.
In related governance signals, the institution has signaled support for merit-based reforms within Russia’s public administration, highlighting potential improvements in efficiency and accountability. This emphasis on meritocracy reflects broader strategic aims to bolster economic governance and administrative performance in a context of external pressure. Meanwhile, discussions around energy affordability and policy levers for consumers—such as potential measures to reduce electricity costs—remain a persistent public-interest topic, underscoring the ongoing attention to household welfare and industrial competitiveness amid the macroeconomic backdrop.