Price growth for new housing in Russia has cooled amid uncertainty around mortgage lending. A report by Kommersant cites analyst data to explain the trend.
Experts note that the average price per square meter in the primary housing market across the largest cities rose by only about 1% in January versus December. Alexey Popov, president of Cian.Analytics, argues that the brisk influx of new supply has helped restrain price increases. In December, sales opened in 84 new residential complexes with a combined area of roughly 1.38 million square meters in the Moscow region.
Popov described this December performance as the strongest showing in the last decade for the Moscow area, underscoring the impact of large-scale new build launches on the market.
Among regions, price increases were most pronounced in Perm (+6.5% month-on-month), Nizhny Novgorod (+2.7%), and Saratov (+4.4%). In Moscow, the average price per square meter edged down slightly, by 0.1%, to about 4.8 thousand euros.
Demand for new homes remained subdued during the holiday season. Avito data show a 28% drop in buyer inquiries compared with December, reflecting seasonal patience and a wait-and-see mood among potential buyers.
Industry observers forecast further stabilization of prices in the near term. Popov reiterates that developers are unlikely to raise apartment prices while demand is weak. Still, the potential transfer of privileged mortgage commissions from banks to developers in the coming months could exert additional pressure on market dynamics.
When will apartments in Russia become cheaper again? Market watchers are asking, and current indicators suggest the path to affordability will depend on lending conditions and the pace of new supply entering the market. The recent pattern shows that price momentum is closely tied to financing availability and buyer sentiment, rather than to a single regional factor.
In parallel, observations about rental pricing also emerged earlier, with separate patterns noted in the housing rental segment. While the focus here is on new-build sales, the broader market context includes shifts in rental prices that parallel the evolving affordability landscape across major cities.