In Finland, timber prices are projected to rise on average by about 10 percent annually, influenced in part by sanctions on Russia. This outlook comes from Teknikka and Talous, who cite forecasts from the country’s Institute of Natural Resources. The expectation is that price momentum will persist as market demand for wood remains strong and as energy wood needs grow alongside tighter supply conditions.
During 2023, pulp material costs were forecast to climb by roughly 11 to 14 percent through 2022, signaling a broader trend of rising input costs across wood products. Birch lumber is anticipated to see price increases around 13 percent, while coniferous lumber is expected to rise by about 3 percent. These projections reflect a market where supply constraints and evolving energy policies converge with steady demand from construction and manufacturing sectors.
Analysts note that the price trajectory is being shaped by multiple forces. Enhanced demand within the lumber industry, a growing need for energy wood, and the ongoing impact of anti-Russian sanctions contribute to higher price levels. Europe has effectively tightened its supply channels to Russia and Belarus in 2022, reducing available export sources and pushing buyers toward alternative suppliers.
By the end of 2023, Russian exporters were reported to have increased their revenue from wood sales to allied markets by roughly one third compared with the pre-2021 fiscal period. The largest single buyer among these markets was China, which recorded import activity totaling about 2.4 billion US dollars. This shift underscores how geopolitics and sanctions are redirecting trade flows in the global timber and wood products sector.
In parallel, aluminum prices hit record highs on the London Metal Exchange at the start of April, driven in part by sanctions imposed by the United States and the United Kingdom against Russia. These moves have contributed to tighter global commodity markets and greater price volatility across metals and related materials. At the same time, coal prices for the European Union rose by approximately 1.5 times, reflecting broader energy-market pressures as EU energy strategies adapt to geopolitical uncertainties.
Taken together, the mix of sanctions, demand growth, and energy transition pressures suggests that wood and related material prices are likely to stay elevated for some time. Buyers across North America and Europe may continue to observe higher input costs in lumber, pulp, and allied sectors as these macroeconomic and political dynamics unfold across 2024 and beyond.